The conclusion: The odds that you exist at all are basically zero., He illustrates it this way: It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing. The probability of this happening is 635,013,559,600 to one against. They agree to within a factor of two! Or is it much too early in the week, this being only Monday, for thinking about stuff like this? Thus, my existence depends on a vast number of meetings going just right; if they hadnt I would never have been born. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. So the combined probability is already around 1 in 40 million long but not insurmountable odds. Step 4. And worry and fear? He attended the Ted Talk and wrote about it afterward, doing his own calculations on how likely your existence is. You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. But, the odds of every bridge deal are exactly the same. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. "That's a pretty big number," I thought to myself. was alerted to a fascinating article by Ali Binazir, who sets forth mathematically the probably that each of us exists. The Arena Media Brands, LLC and respective content providers to this website may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. 2019 Ali Binazir, M.D., M.Phil, All Rights Reserved. Suitcases checked and standing side by side. A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Those who say Charles Darwins concept of evolution is hogwash gleefully seize on Borels Law to support their arguments. The chances of that turning into another meeting is about 1 in 10. So the combined probability is already around 1 in 40 million long but not insurmountable odds. Again, it is similar to the probability of winning the Loto: while my chances of winning are very small, the probability of someone (or someones) winning are much higher. The answer, if my math is right, (assuming a mass of the moon of 7.34 x 10^22 kg), is about 7.34 x 10^34 years. It is approximately 1 in 102,685,000 according to Dr. Ali Binazir, in a publication distributed by Huffington Post. The probability that you came about is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the water -- into the middle of that life preserver. Its almost too big to process, just know that the odds that you exist at all are basically zero. "It is a part of probability that many improbable things will happen.. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. The number of atoms in the known universe is estimated at 1080. Please pass this post along. This video makes a moving point, but it attributes our existence to luck. *wink wink* Well, hello thereBom chicka wow wowits: The chance of every one of your ancestors outrunning dinosaurs, disease, war and pestilence to live to reproductive age and reproduce successfully is one in 10. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (41014). As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. Awe and wonderment at merely being alive on even a bad or boring day makes perfect sense. Id gladly take those odds over trying to become a millionaire in any other country. So he gave us an analogy that helps: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting togetherabout the population of San Diegoeach to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, The answer is five hundred bazillion squintillion, we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. According to WolframAlpha, the total area of oceans in the world is 3.409108 square kilometers, or 340,900,000 km2 (131.6 million square miles, for those benighted souls who still cling to user-hostile British measures). First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. If this writer can grasp the concept then any one of those infinite monkeys can. However, your existence presupposes another supremely unlikely chain of events. Probability of boy meeting girl: one in 20,000. On top of that, to be born in a first-world country, the odds are even smaller. So now we must account for that for 150,000 generations by raising 400 quadrillion to the 150,000th power: Thats a ten followed by 2,640,000 zeroes, which would fill 11 volumes of a book the size of mine with zeroes. On the Probability of Your Being Born.. Well then, that would be one in 2 , which is about one in 10 -- a number so staggeringly large that my head hurts just writing it down. Scientists have calculated the odds of a human being born as at least 1 in 400 trillion. In 1943, the distinguished French mathematician mile Borel developed a law about probabilities that stated events with a sufficiently small probability never occur (Institute of Mathematical Statistics). dr ali binazir odds of being born. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. Multiplying it all together for the sake of completeness (Step 1 x Step 2 x Step 3 x Step 4): Probability of your being born: one in 10. To be more specific, its probably 1 in 102,640,000. Dr. Binazir calculated that the odds against each of us being born produced a number that makes the brain hurt. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Thats a ridiculously huge number. Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." A man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents, too. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: one in 2000. If Borels Law is the immutable truth and the creationists are wrong, you cant exist. How fast does a laden fly fly? HubPages is a registered trademark of The Arena Platform, Inc. Other product and company names shown may be trademarks of their respective owners. Which one's bigger? Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Visions in Lent: Family Life As a Seen in a Rock Tumbler. Its so unlikely, its almost impossible that youre here and taking a breath right now. So he gave us an analogy that helps: "It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting togetherabout the population of San Diegoeach to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. Lets say a life preservers hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside, which we will conveniently round to 0.5 square meters. To further awaken to the miracle that is you, get The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible, now available in book, ebook, Kindle, audiobook, and Sinai indestructible stone tablet. Perhaps three years ago or just last Tuesday a certain leaf fluttered from one shoulder to another? Sean said that we have already won the cosmic lottery simply by being born because the odds of that happening alone is one in a gazillion times. In fact, He has been preparing a place for each of us in the kingdom, from before the creation of the world. That probability is low but the presence of super-novae throughout the cosmos is not. Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis; you are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. Think of yourself as dead. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. Thats a pretty good trip. One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? He goes further back to look at the probability of all your ancestors successfully mating, and of all the right sperm meeting all the right eggs to make each one of those ancestors. His reasoning being that each person experiences an event of some sort every second. xx, Lets be social! Or is it possible that they are underestimates of the true number? Step 2. Half of those people, or 200 million, will be of the opposite sex. If I had 400 trillion pennies to my name, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. So lets say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million: Probability of boy meeting girl: 1 in 20,000. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. And lets say the fly decides to bring the ENTIRE MOON back to the Earth, one grain of sand at a time. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. A lovely day to you. Those who are brave (foolish?) 7 distinct works Similar authors. Step 2. Thats 150,000 generations. I recently got to wondering: What are the chances that my son was born? In a recent talk at TEDx San Francisco, Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author, mentioned that scientists estimate the probability of your being born at about one in 400 trillion. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: 1 in 2000. It would be your cousin Jethro, and you never really liked him anyway. That is incredibly unlikely to the point of impossible. Its not cheesy to be grateful to be alive, if you look at the facts, it should be normal. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. That should always be a great sense of wonder and a real source of gratitude. By entering your email and clicking Sign Up, you're agreeing to let us send you customized marketing messages about us and our advertising partners. 2023 BuzzFeed, Inc. All rights reserved. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. dr ali binazir odds of being born. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. Otherwise theyd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. The only know outcome is that you were born to your particular parents. Previously, I had heard the Buddhist version of the probability of "this precious incarnation." By all accounts, you shouldnt even be here. I have one baby so far, but Im still fertile, according to science. Essentially, what Borel said was that any event with a honking big (a technical term used by mathematicians) level of improbability would never happen. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. And I note that it is an unladen fly that moves at about 4 mph. One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? Step 1. dr ali binazir odds of being bornmartin et julien bouchet biathlon. Borels Law has since been enlisted by creationists and evolutionists alike to bolster their arguments. The number of atoms making up the earth is about 1050. Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. In other words, as this infographic figures it, you are totally improbable. Dr. The moon is about 240,000 miles from the Earth. That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. Or are we some mysterious combination of impossible and inevitable? So I got curious: Are either of these estimates correct? Regardless of your skin color, country of origin, body size, religion, gender, or view point, WE ALREADY MADE IT HERE. So the probability of your parents chance meeting resulting in kids is about 1 in 2000. In its Final Data report of U.S. deaths for 2010, the CDC reported assault (homicide) dropped off of the list of the 15 leading causes of death, becoming 16th, following pneumonitis due to solids and liquids.. But let's think about this some more. So I got curious: are either of these numbers correct? It makes me want to practice love, forgiveness, gratitude, acceptance, service/charity, kindness, being humble while inherently owning my miraculous self. What Does Jesus Mean When He Says We Must Be Salted with Fire. So what's the probability of your being born? If you need to flag this entry as abusive. Why? You may quibble with some of the Binazirs assumptions above. The chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is about 1 in 10. The great mystery of our existence stretches back in time into the very heart and mind of God who has always known and loved us, has prepared for us and made a way for us. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. But on all probability it would. June 5. God has always known us, intended us, loved us, and planned for us. So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. So the combined probability is already around one in 40 million -- long but not insurmountable odds. Learn more here: Dr. Ali Binazir's Article on Probability of Being Born Even with the lowest statistic of 1 in 400 trillion, you would have a better chance of winning over $100 million. Now lets get down to some of the biological details: each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis; you are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm. To get the final answer, technically we need to multiply that by the 1045,000 , 2000 and 20,000 up there, but those numbers are so shrimpy in comparison that it almost doesnt matter. This includes personalizing content and advertising. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? Same to all of us. on May 07, 2020: Rupert, in spite of too many odds in a probability, bottom line is that it is just 2 numbers of the roulette, black and red. By that definition, Ive just shown that you are a miracle, he wrote. He assumes each person is alert and awake for eight hours a day (this allows for downtime watching reality TV shows when the human brain is entirely inactive). Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: 1 in 2000. And whats even more profound is that 10^2,685,00 is not even remotely comparable with eternity. Step 1. It turns out that when taking into account the astonishing number of possibilities of parents meeting, grandparents meeting before them, and so on going back generations, and then adding the vast number of sperm and ova in possible combinations over decades of the marital act in all those generations, the odds of me existing just as I do are about 1 in 102,685,000. That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. He used a thought experiment to illustrate this that became known popularly as the infinite monkey theorem; this states that if an infinite number of monkeys pound the keys of an infinite number of typewriters they will eventually write the complete works of Shakespeare. The Nobel Prize winning poet Wislawa Szymborska once wrote about two lovers who liked to think they'd met entirely by chance, but no, she says, there was nothing chancy about it. Take a second and think about that, and put a smile on your face, you fucking miracle you. Love, H, Writer, Mama, Spiritual Warrior @RecovHer, Sharing is Caring! So, who better to explain probability theory than someone who is a complete duffer at mathematics? They each roll the dice and they all come up with. Now take whats left and live it properly. Marcus Aurelius. If I had 400 trillion pennies, I could probably build a decent-sized penny fortress with it. For a more thorough discussion of this topic, visit the Tao of Dating and Awaken Your Genius blogs. This is also true of their parents, and so on till the beginning of time. Let's confine the pool of possible people they could meet to 1/10th of the world's population 20 years go (1/10th of 4 billion = 400 million) so it considers not just the population of the US but that of the places they could have visited. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? Dr. Ali Binazir Has 10 Years + Experience As A Author. Fortunately, just such a person is poised at the keyboard right now, so lets get started. Osterholm is one of the world's foremost public health professionals, having served for 40 years on the frontlines of such diseases as Ebola, SARS, MERS, Zika and everything else. We were all meant to be here and that we must find our purpose that brought us into creation! Were all winners in life without doing anything! A rational approach acknowledges that incredibly low probabilities is not the same as zero probability. decision by design review farnam street; dr ali binazir odds of being born; post mortem fingerprint equipment. Not only are you and I contingent, we are highly improbable! Who knows, maybe the ball that vanished into childhood's thicket? Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: 1 in 400 quadrillion. But its not even remotely comparable with 10^2,685,000. or one in 6.821014, or about 1 in 700 trillion. : A definitive guide for smart women, How to Get Guys: The 6.5 Dating Phases of Men. This alone should boost any lingering low self-esteem quite a bit. Gather your loved ones around and give props to your incredibly resilient and badass survivor ancestors, while you explode your gender revel confetti poppers. Lets not get carried away here; well just deal with the human lineage. They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. I'm Heidi, I'm a writer, a mama and a sober recovery teacher/mentor. If one square kilometer is a million square meters, then the probability of Mr Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or. But when we take it back throughout all the unbroken generations of life, then to the formation of the earth, then the development of the galaxy, then the universe being created from the Big Bang, your odds have now been reduced to 1 in 10 followed by 2,685,000 zeroes. An unimaginably long time. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. The scientists and Buddhists seem to agree. The numbers are getting plenty huge as it is. I have over 2,000 posts here & my recovery related blogs are all under the RecovHer category at the top. On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born? On one try. Tip #3 of 20: You are already a goddess, so feel free to act like one. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? They look like this , or this, and have to be avoided at all costs. One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? Or could they be underestimates of the true number? What it took to get us all here, in this time, together, seems too precious to let pass us by without open hearts. The odds of being murdered are relatively low when compared to other possible causes of death. Ensure you visit this website and get the right details and names that fits your babies. Borels Law is about the probability of events occurring. Harvard alumnus and creativity consultant Dr. Ali Binazir tried to calculate the mind-boggling odds of one being born into existence on earth, and came up with interesting results. They each roll the dice -- and they all come up the exact same number -- say, 550,343,279,001. Let's say a life preserver's hole is about 80cm in diameter, which would make the area inside about 0.5 square meter. Maybe that one would have been better. A fertile woman has about 100,000 viable eggs while a man will produce about 12 trillion sperm over the course of his reproductive lifetime. In 1913, at the roulette wheel at the Casino de Monte-Carlo, the ball dropped into a black slot 26 times in succession. Our babys name creator can help you find a baby at 12 weeks old and unique name for your child. If even once the wrong sperm met the wrong egg, you would not be sitting here noodling online reading fascinating articles like this one. You exist, that is the only probable outcome, so the probability of you being you is 1. Because were about to deal with eggs and sperm, which come in large numbers. The odds against 26 blacks in a row are about 66 million to one against; however, previous results have absolutely no effect on subsequent ones. If there is only one outcome then the probability is 1/1=1. Step 1. You are, He Will Come Like a Thief to Take Back What Is His, Flee to the Truth When Tempted A Homily for the First Sunday of Lent, Ash Wednesday Breaks All the Rules of Modern Churchthink. He calculated that an average human could expect to experience such an occurrence once every 35 days. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazirs article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. The learned professor was actually pulling everyones legs, but Littlewoods Law has been conscripted as proof of a number of strange theories. Click the image to enlarge it and check their numbers: Of course, there are poets who argue exactly the opposite: that each of us is fated to exist, that there is a plan, and that all of us are expected. He concluded that the chances of a turtle sticking its head out in the middle of the life preserver was about one in 700 trillion. Some of the numbers are approximations, but generally they are on the conservative side. Think about yourself.You are here becauseYour dad met your mom.Then your dad and mom conceived you.So a particular egg in your momJoined a particular sperm from your dadWhich could only happen because not one of your direct ancestors, going all the way back to the beginning of life itself, died before passing on his or her genesSo what are the chances of you happening?Of you being here? Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. Were we meant to be, each and every one of us? Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. How do you deal with a confirmed bachelor?, 9 Reasons Why Men Lose Interest and What You Can Do About It. Thats three billion years, or about 150,000 generations, of reproduction without a hitch. Tara MacIsaac is an Epoch Times reporter based in Toronto. If they met one new person of the opposite sex every day from age 15 to 40, that would be about 10,000 people. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. Dr. Ali Binazir took it further. So the probability of your parents' chance meeting resulting in kids is about one in 2000. And to get even more woo-woo, I believe we each have a team of ancestors, Spirit Guides and Angels looking after us who love us so much. These links dont impose any extra cost on you, and they help support the free content I provide here. It is the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. This content is accurate and true to the best of the authors knowledge and is not meant to substitute for formal and individualized advice from a qualified professional. And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. If you assume the current population is 1% of the history of humanity, the total number of combinations increases to 1.1 x 10^39. You can consider using our babies name resource to choose baby at 12 weeks old that suits your needs! Now things start getting interesting. Now lets say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. The probability that you came about and exist today is the same as that turtle sticking its head out of the waterin the middle of that life preserver. Multply the volume of New Jerusalem by 77. I would not exist if my parents had not existed and then met. whump prompts generator > mecklenburg county, va indictments 2021 > dr ali binazir odds of being born. You have lived your life. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. If you assume there are 3 billion women and 3 billion men alive today, that means 3 x 10^14 eggs and 3.6 x 10^22 sperm are currently on the planet, for a total of 1.1 x 10^37 possible pairings. But Im not mathy. On one try.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. -- from "Love at First Sight", Wislawa Szymborska, The End and The Beginning, 1993. A little while ago I had the privilege of attending TEDx San Francisco, organized by the incomparable Christine Mason McCaull. Now things start getting interesting. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 1 in 2. Onward to freedom! Want to Read. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique? I was toying with this other idea, about an owl who falls in love with a cat and brings it mice every day. The odds of you existing have been calculated by Dr. Ali Binazir. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. I hope you use your chance well. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 -- one in two. Rich E Cunningham from Ontario, Canada on May 14, 2020: Interesting article, guess we are lucky to be here! Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age -- going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Which one's bigger? One in 400 trillion vs one in 700 trillion? Just starting from your parents, the chance of them meeting and creating you is astronomically slim. 3.97 avg rating 549 ratings published 2010 5 editions. Or, the total number of seconds that have elapsed since the Big Bang is 10x 16 th power. For the curious, that is expressed as one in 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. For the sake of completeness: (102,640,000)(1045,000)(2000)(20,000) = 4x 102,685,007 102,685,000, Probability of your existing at all: 1 in 102,685,000.
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