The Minerals Income Investment Fund (MIIF) is projecting a surge in national gold production from 5.1 million ounces in 2024 to approximately 6.3 million ounces in 2026.
The development would cement gold’s role as the anchor of Ghana’s mining sector and a critical pillar of the economy, dominated by large-scale producers, the 2026 MIIF economic and market outlook said.
The projection showed small-scale gold production increasing more than fourfold – from approximately 700,000 ounces in 2022 to over 3.2 million ounces in 2026, boosting the segment to just above 50 percent of national output.
On the other hand, large-scale producers are projected to increase production from the 2.8 million ounces in 2025 to roughly three million ounces in 2026, with sector changes providing opportunities and policy reform decisions.
The MIIF outlook noted that the evolving production mix underscored the need for continued formalisation, stronger regulatory oversight, and enhanced governance frameworks to support environmental compliance while improving the state’s capacity to deepen royalty capture and strengthen sector resilience.
The report indicated that the challenge for policymakers would be harnessing the economic potential of small-scale mining, while addressing longstanding concerns about environmental degradation, mercury use, and revenue leakage.
Looking beyond gold, MIIF has outlined an ambitious strategic orientation for 2026 designed to capitalise on seismic shifts in global markets while safeguarding against macroeconomic and geopolitical turbulence.
The Fund said it would focus on three key areas to drive Ghana’s economic growth and maximize returns in 2026, including investing in critical minerals like lithium and salt, selective equities investments, and a balanced fixed income approach.
“These themes support a diversified portfolio positioned to deliver stable long-term returns while managing downside risks across asset classes and regions,” the outlook noted.
It is expected that the strategic investments by MIIF would also secure supplies of other minerals – lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, which are essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and advanced technologies.
That would position the nation to potentially replicate its gold success in emerging commodity markets, signalling MIIF’s confidence in the country’s resource sector while acknowledging the complex global environment ahead.
“MIIF’s strategic orientation for 2026 is anchored on capturing opportunities arising from structural shifts in global markets while maintaining portfolio resilience amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties,” the report said.